Moscow financial analyst Stepan Demura, unlike many experts, warned of the impending collapse of the Russian economy, the decline in oil prices and the ruble. Now Stepan Demura says that Russia is ripe revolutionary situation, the margin of safety of the country exhausted, but peaceful "color revolution" will not, and will face the bloody events. Meanwhile, the ruble will fall further.

How do you explain your forecasting talent is the intuition that this experience?

No talent, no, no intuition, no. You just need to understand how markets work and the economy. There are tools for market analysis, this Elliott wave, they work perfectly, as I demonstrate with the mid 2000's, and Robert Prechter uses them since the late 1970s, and makes this a lot of money. Roughly speaking, this theory of the behavior of the crowd, the so-called sociodynamics. The crowd peculiar delusion or delusions. Markets from the point of view of the crowd absolutely illogical. The modern economy is built on the assumption that all investors are rational objects, i.e. all their actions are rational: based on the information they have, they take rational decisions. Now the crowd or economic agents behave irrational, and therefore all the modern economy is a funny science. About the irrational behavior of the crowd talked a lot Austrians von Mises and von Hayek. They used it in their theories of the business cycle. But since it is in the modern economy is absolutely non-kosher things, they aren't taught, and they are under a taboo.

You predicted the collapse of the ruble, and now we hear the most pessimistic forecasts: for example, in the broadcast channel "Rain", osarsiph the presenter of the program, the Director of the company "Finam" Nikolai Salabue coolly remarked that by March the dollar will be worth 200 rubles. Please support his prediction?

- 200 as the target is not worth it. The only thing I can say: the ruble bottom no technical and fundamental reasons. Now the ruble went on its last journey. Of course, there will be significant correction of 10, 7 rubles per dollar, but the direction of this global trend down only. With regard to two hundred, I'm kidding differently that we can see the situation, and when the oil 150, and 150 ruble. The reason is very simple that the oilfield services market, and this maintenance of producing wells, exploration, drilling, Russia occupies about 80%. There were 4 large companies, now Halliburton bought Hughes, remained almost 3, they cover 80% of the market, and they are under sanctions. And is already a hot discussion in the Russian government that they will do with their production to sell, close, and the like. Simply start a sharp reduction in production volumes and, consequently, the export of oil. Therefore, the oil can cost 150, and receipts of currency in the country's budget will be much less. Of course, growth will resume oil production and supply in the oil market will begin to decline from Russia for these reasons: accordingly, we can see the growth of oil and a further decline of the ruble.

- Now share in social networks references made 11 months ago, the predictions of the analysts who spoke to the Russians that don't need to buy a dollar for 35 rubles, because the ruble will certainly grow. What do people who believed then these predictions were not to buy anything and still hesitating, don't know to change or wait for the ruble will grow?

- Everyman actually the unenviable fate, since more than 90% of market participants lose money. So, what would the average person do it sooner or later will lose. Even if you tell the average person that the ruble has no bottom, buy dollars and not pay any attention to a temporary strengthening of the ruble, it may be, will buy dollars, but then, when the ruble will strengthen 5-7 rubles to the dollar, he will almathera gave this advice and I'll take your dollars for 7 rubles cheaper and, of course, then the course will unfold, and again the ruble will fall. Therefore, the Council of people here to give useless, they still will do the opposite.

Putin in his address threatened currency speculators and evidently hoped to stop the fall of the ruble. Naturally, got the opposite effect at the time of his speech - the ruble immediately went down.

I even early in the week in the blog wrote, laughed: "Where Nabiullina? They either fell asleep at the wheel, or it has not been beaten on the head with a paddle - she rocking the boat". Of course, left the Central Bank, started to do some intervention to stabilize the exchange rate. Just in time for the beginning of Putin's speech, if in technical analysis to go, the ruble fell correction began on the ruble, the correction is almost exhausted, stood divergence of the five minute charts, and the ruble had to start another small slalom, which is what happened. And Putin's speech... Coincided events happen.

- Now almost seriously in the Duma offer to spend the denomination of the ruble just for the psychological effect that the Euro was not 60 rubles, and 6. Seems to be a sign of panic?

I Duma called hosdurga because their initiatives would be laughable if it were not so terrible. You cannot seriously consider their statements or speeches of the President, because, in my opinion, they work mainly on the domestic market, the domestic consumers, the so-called great Russian world and are balabanski character. Well posavlyat, still nothing you can do or make all on the contrary. Examples of this huge mass, take the promise of the same taxes for small and medium businesses that were a year or two ago. It's still going crazy and seriously analyze the statements of the inhabitants. They don't mean. Yes, it looks ridiculous from the outside, this is something you can laugh, but if you think that this so-called people's representatives, the legislative branch, it becomes very sad.

And as for the statement of the former Prime Minister and now head of the foreign intelligence Service Mikhail Fradkov, who said that the collapse of the ruble is the action of dark forces in the West, the United States, investment funds, which are specially engaged in speculation, is also a statement from the madhouse?

"No, here, not only from the madhouse. Fradkov would like a little more upset by the fact that the big players, large speculators have not started out of the ruble. The main impact on the ruble from despicable speculators in the 2008-2009 year was just from funds that invested in Russian stocks: there was a powerful outflow, in my opinion, a billion and a half left. And now the main blow, and he only starts to raskochegaryas, from funds invested in bonds, which took cheap money in the West in the currency at low interest rates, have converted them into rubles, bought both public and corporate ruble bonds and, therefore, these "two percent", as we say here new cool, and lived. Now, according to my estimates, and estimates of the Central Bank, such investment money order 60-66 billion dollars - this is the first. Second, you need to understand the differences in psychology between funds and managers that invest in bonds and equities. For Fund managers drawdown in 10 or 15% is already death, they get a nervous tick. Now, if we take the dynamics of ruble-denominated corporate blue chip and government bonds and put on this momentum loss, ruble risk, because they have a monetary balance of any dollar or Euro, we find that even with the accumulated income for the last two years, they now crossed the line in 15-20% drawdown. That is, there will now be a mass exit from the ruble-denominated bonds, it only begins. In Central Bank money on the maintenance of the ruble, in my estimation, somewhere between 30 and 60 billion dollars only, other estimates obtained from 40 to 100, i.e. currency on maintenance of the ruble is not. And that it really is a massive blow from the so-called despicable speculators, and this impact has not started yet.

- Can we expect a punch, and with the other hand - off SWIFT? You know the claim of the head of VTB's Kostin, who said that it would mean a Declaration of war, and the Ambassador of the United States will have to leave the country the same day. The anticipation of such sanctions seriously. Decide whether the West on this?

It is difficult to say. I'm here I'm not going to think of it I will leave artists conversational genre, every political scientists. And I have such a bad habit to read the column Brzezinski and his performances, good for 12 years I lived in the States, know English well, even with Brzezinski met a couple of times at University events. In the beginning what is happening, he wrote that Western leaders should make it clear to Mr Putin and his inner circle that the price for their actions for them personally will be very high. Indeed, at first, appeared a list of Putin's inner circle, who are under sanctions. Flew Firtash, it quickly picked up, twisted, now, apparently, he began to testify, hoping to deal with the investigation with the FBI. But it didn't work, no change in foreign policy and policy towards Ukraine was not followed. Brzezinski then was a little disappointed, wrote that the only thing that still supports Putin in his course, is national love. So we beat on people. And then went the most powerful sanctions that you're not in a circle of Putin, and the economy as a whole. This cutting off of all Western capital markets, and also to work with the Chinese, which was very successful, so if they had not joined the sanctions, at least not violated them. This work with the Europeans, because, let's be honest, the Europeans are neither fish nor fowl, only now they have worked. Americans, apparently, it is very clearly explained, with what they are dealing with. But it takes time. And only now there is some confidence that the sanctions actually work. They have not yet led to a change of course Putin, slightly slowed down the escalation of the situation, but nothing has changed. What will be the next step? Well, off you Russia from the SWIFT system - this will be a very quick painful blow this blow was inflicted on Iran. But not fatal. Because Western strategists (where they are not practical, in my opinion, except Brzezinski) underestimate what is happening in Russia, underestimate the level of manipulation of public opinion and consciousness that is happening here. It will all be explained to the people the conspiracy cursed West, who hates the great Russian world for its high spirituality, something will be there on the First channel. So this is also probably will not change the foreign policy of Putin. But a gradual strengthening existing sanctions in the field of mining, exploration, banking sector, sooner or later will lead to the desired results. Because the relationship between durackova and refrigerator cannot be set.

Russian businessmen furious. In the restaurant "Pushkin" now the conversation such as on some of the congregation of the movement "Solidarity" four years ago. Can the indignation of business, Crimea destroyed or ruins, lead to the revolt of the rich against officials, against Putin, or is it totally unrealistic scenario?

All corrupt, tied, almost all have folders, and they are terribly cowardly. Yes, they can say something, but when it comes down to it, they cannot do a thing. This is not the contingent, which is able to do anything to change the situation.

- There is a curious version, it was expressed in our live American financial analyst Vitaly Katsenelson that the Ukrainian adventure Kremlin was started due to the fact that Putin felt the coming economic collapse and the fall in oil prices and decided to divert attention. Too beautiful sounds or may be true?

It too sounds good. Most experts, analysts and politicians in General now refuse to admit one simple fact. What is a management system in Russia, the country, as an integral organism, where there is a management system, which is called vertical of power or the Politburo-2? Nothing like that, I call DGA - stupid, stupid, absurd. Fools give orders, fools they are, what output is absurd, absurd. Any strategy Putin was not. All his tactics are very simple, and boils down to this: something to do, to see the reaction. If you got very sick, go in the other direction. If you like hurt, but not so badly hit, well, will push further in this direction. And that's all. And any inferences that last more than approach, is not his hobby and not a fad its environment, in my opinion. Crimea was planned, maybe before, because in the Kremlin do not perceive Ukraine as a kind of independent or viable country. For example, the banner of the so-called Neuroscie or Lucantoni were exposed to any gatherings on lake Seliger in 2011, and in 2012, so some of this was preparing. But the annexation or occupation of the Crimea, I think it was a spontaneous decision of Putin, because only what is absolutely similar mode, just one to one analogous, flew for some two months. What should I do? When such an ass in the country, so, we need to talk about patriotism, that we are great, that we rise from our knees and, of course, as there is bread and circuses, you need to throw people a regular sight. That's tossed. What happened with Putin's approval rating? He soared into the heavens. Therefore, this ploy worked, and it was calculated. Although the consequences they are, I think, absolutely not counted. Georgia they turned out, they thought that Crimea could get away with it. If here is not interfered with the Americans, if Putin had not gone to the East of Ukraine, I think that Europeans Crimea would he forgave. Pabusily, pabusily, but the Crimea would have forgiven. But it's gone too far.

We talked about what to do about people who were afraid to change money, and what do people say "thinking"? I see on their friends: people that has not even been thought about emigration, now there is nothing else to say. Know what you advised in your public speeches to leave Russia?

- Yes, other way I currently do not see. I said that if by the end of 2014 in Russia will not start pogroms, I am out of the country leaving. They are not started, people lap it up again it is prepared by the Kremlin propagandists dish. And I have the impression that the country is close to passing the point of no return, after which it will cease to be a country that has some future.

You mentioned Iran, there is a similar situation and sanctions wide, and SWIFT turned off, however, the Iranian revolution has fizzled out, the authority has not changed, now the sanctions are slowly removed, some kind of "stability" for many years set. Whether in Russia to end the Iranian option? Or it is impossible to compare?

- No, why, can. Only, you know, the Iranians was more ideological margin, they are still Muslims. In Russia, however, this margin of safety there. In Russia now there is only a margin of safety from the ideological point of view is that a significant portion of the population suddenly United against a common enemy. We the people always somehow uniting against the enemy. Just to unite, to do something useful for the country fails. Now with the enemy - Yes. The enemy is very well chosen: as always, it's out there somewhere far away, it's big and scary, his actions can be seen in his fridge, but he is far away, this strange abstract enemy. And all other ideological scrap no ideology in the country is not at all. So the question is, how long and deep will be sanctions. Because in Iran due to the ideological factor of safety has not been a collapse of government institutions and social institutions. In Iran, corruption is not the most terrible and most in the world. In Russia the system control no, it boils down to DGA - stupid, stupid, absurd. Corruption is widespread, it just struck as cancer, the state, the state machine is already unable to do. Income stratification horrible. Therefore, in Russia created by the hands of Putin for the last 10 years of the revolutionary situation, when the masses do not want the tops can't. Moreover, in Russia there is practically no political freedoms, therefore, as correctly observed by the same Putin, Maidan in Russia is impossible. I agree with him, Maidan, i.e. bloodless revolution is impossible here. If you look at all these "color revolutions", they were successful in countries where there have been relative political freedom, which was really not funny Kremlin opposition. Somewhere they brought their results, somewhere there. Here it is impossible. That is, if it is impossible to Maidan, there will be a Tahrir. It will happen sooner or later, because of the revolutionary situation in the country is, and it's only getting worse. In my opinion, sanctions are not the first cause of the deterioration of the economic situation, and everything that happens. The economy really started to pour in 2012, the ruble, if he had not fallen in 2014, would have fallen in 2015. Just each system has a tensile strength and there is a limit to wear when it starts to break down and disintegrate. In my opinion, these limits in Russia has already passed, and sanctions only became all the ugliness of the state machine, the state structure, which is in Russia. So peaceful here, unfortunately.

Source: Radio Liberty