A few days before a possible meeting of the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia in Astana in the so-called “channel format”, it becomes clear that no real results to reach the fail - primarily because the parties completely different assessments of their own position and intention of each other.

West on some completely unknown reason - however, clear, normal people tend to think about others in similar categories believes that Vladimir Putin has already realized how disastrous for Russia, its political regime and for him personally, European and American sanctions. In conditions of declining oil prices, restriction of credit can finish off the Russian economy. That is why sanctions should get at least Hollande or Merkel may be delivered in Putin's place. That is why Hollande declares that if progress will be made towards the settlement of the situation in the East of Ukraine, the Western sanctions can be undone - and if there is no progress, there will be no lifting of sanctions. Merkel added that the lifting of the sanctions can occur in parallel with the improvement of the situation. Will leave the Donbass will be cancelled "Donetsk package", but when will release the Crimea - and then doesn sanctions will cancel, although the Chancellor does not believe in it.

Now as I understand it in Moscow.
Therefore, when Hollande says about the lifting of sanctions, in Moscow hear only the first part of his statement and turn a deaf ear second. And convince themselves that "anti-Russian front" broken and France not today, then tomorrow will repent, will give Mistral and generally will enter into the Eurasian Union. When Merkel says about a possible procedure for the lifting of sanctions, in the Kremlin understand it as a call to a gradual surrender: now, as soon as the "surrender" Donbass "Westerners" will continue to press in Crimea. So - not a step back, or you will be trampled.

So Putin is the most important thing now is not to retreat. That's the way he perceives the recipe of their own political survival. And how much Hollande and Merkel had not convinced him that as a result of this "survival" wobbly building of the Russian economy will fall just on the head of the Kremlin celestial, he would not believe it. And so will try to be led by the nose to the last, trying to achieve the lifting of sanctions, without any real action with his own hand. Therefore, in Astana - even if Hollande, Merkel, Hillary Clinton and Putin there appears, nothing will happen.

It seems to be understood already and Nazarbayev also decided that the economic situation in Russia will push Putin to resolve the crisis and faced with a wall of inadequacy. And now Nazarbayev's just trying to convert its new status of a mediator and the mediator's not so much to resolve the Ukrainian situation, how to prevent Kazakhstan.

This is the answer to the question of what might happen or not happen in Astana: it is impossible to be saved together with Putin, agreeing with him and hoping for his common sense. Be saved only if Putin will not - not if it is "something" will understand and change policy. And after Nazarbayev this truth will have to understand and those Western politicians who depend on the sanity of the Russian President, and those who says that the sanctions are designed not to collapse of the Russian state, and understanding with him.

We just all need to stop lying to ourselves.

Source: lb.ua