Ukraine does not give lethal weapons, there is even an unspoken embargo, which adheres to most of the countries of Europe. There are a number of other “problems” in relations with the West. But why not use the limitations as advantages and not to engage in local political movement forward.” For example – to enter into an Alliance with Poland and become a challenge to the economic and political locomotives of the EU?

It would seem strange, it is quite clear who shot down Malaysian Boeing, who is the source of aggression in Europe who threaten stability and peace. In the U.S. presidential administration is hinting that it is the number one problem is not ISIS, and Russia, with its withdrawal from the treaties on arms limitation.

Russia unilaterally refused inspection of nuclear facilities, threatening including to withdraw from the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Russia is unilaterally withdrawing from treaties on the reduction of conventional weapons. But nonetheless, Ukraine, which is barely able to bring up your military, not only gets the weapons from their political allies, but even weapons components.

The West is afraid of Russia and does not want her to tease, enticing carrot and stick in a trap? This is partly true, but only partly. The West is afraid of instability inside Ukraine volunteer battalions and their freemen, it scares the weakness of the Central government and corruption? There is also a part of the truth. However, it should look a little forward.

Is there a topic panic not want to raise in conversation policy both in the West and in Russia. It's possible convergence of the political positions of Ukraine and Poland. The subject is so taboo that Polish politicians are not very willing to comment on it. And yet history repeats itself, and repeats itself not as farce or drama.

Poland and Ukraine have not only a lot of common history, but of course conflict situations. After all, the Ukrainian state occurred against the backdrop of the struggle against the Commonwealth. However, economic and political relations are a significant part of Ukraine remained with Poland until 1939, when the result of the Covenant Motolov-Ribbentrop Pact, Poland was torn apart. Now economic relations of Ukraine with Poland experiencing a boom and the Renaissance. Also explicit and political aspect. But the issue of sustainable Polish-Ukrainian Union does not rise. Although there are clear advantages that in the next few years will be crucial for politics and Economics in Europe.

If 10-15 years from Poland and Ukraine will be able to unite politically and economically, creating and also military Alliance, they will be the economy and statehood in line with such countries as Germany, Britain and France, ahead of Russia. Why is it so? It is easy to see that Poland with a population of approximately 39 million and Ukraine with a population of over 43,5 million excluding annexed Crimea with heavy industry and closed industrial production chain that can compete with European goods within the common market. Politically same Ukrainian-polskii Union will have considerable weight due to its geographical position.

The fact that this Union their territory completely block the way from Europe from the Baltic to the black sea in Asia. The only exception is unreliable communications via Turkey. But extensive transport network of Ukraine and Poland will be a reliable support for the movement of goods, being the end point for the “great silk road”, which is now being built by China. From this endpoint in Europe will depend on all of Asia, including China, Central Asian republics and of course Russia. In political terms, Russia will be dropped at the position of the pre-Petrine period, having only outputs to the internal seas, where the Straits are controlled by a third – party intermediary in the trade.

It is also important to note the increasing military importance of the Union. Military Alliance implies a strong army, which has already passed the test in battle with a serious opponent, and in the case of military unification and introduction of modern technologies, the United forces of Ukraine and Poland will be able to play a role for NATO as it now plays France and Britain. Polish army (140 000 of constant composition) and Ukrainian (250 000), the total military budget (about 16 billion dollars) plus heavy weapons, as well as the possibility of placing of the ABM in territory of the States will turn this region into a secure and reliable turn. The army of the Union will be the strongest in Europe.

Hence, all long-term concerns and the almost complete silence about the prospect of a powerful Ukrainian-Polish Union, the Union, which will be economically and politically leading competitor locomotives of the European Union. And the role of Ukraine in this issue key. Significantly from policy of Ukraine for the next 10 years depends, whether there will be significant convergence between poles and Ukrainians, which will lead to Union. This Union will strongly resist all Europeans and Russia, for which such a Union would be a virtual death sentence. But for Ukraine the situation will be winning, because it carries a number of advantages, not only in the political and defence spheres.

In ten years, the GDP of Ukraine in favorable conditions, can grow almost half of its level in 2015 and up to 300 billion. US dollars at PPP. Poland – more than 1.2 trillion. US dollars at PPP. In total, this level of Russia's GDP and more than of a number of major European States. And control of trade routes between Europe and Asia will allow for enough effective transcontinental economic program. Dynamics of growth of the economy will not only continue, but will accelerate in the next 20 years will lead to growth of GDP, comparable with Britain or France.

Apparently the future of Ukraine is not so much to associate with the entry in the EU, as with usaimi integration with strong historical ally that would allow for a fairly strong independent economic and public policy. Local integration in the context of General integration in open markets and military-political system is a “middle path”, the path to the future that you want to lay now, despite the possible resistance of a number of political and economic forces. And here it would be necessary to enlist the support of parties that could be interested in such a Union. This is the United States and Canada, which traditionally interesting strong Pro-American ally, especially in Eastern Europe. thus the United States would have received two strong allies – Britain and Poland, as if forming the outer contours of Europe, carrying including and guarantee the security of the region as a whole.

Vitaly Rajdev, Viktor Shevchuk. Russian Jew.

Source: http://rusjev.net/