You think im scared? Very much mistaken! Imagine you were on the edge of the abyss and I see approaching from the mountains an avalanche. That is the feeling that survive today, many inhabitants of the Kremlin, Parliament, ministries...
To stop the avalanche of impossible, but to jump into the abyss – you know... the Avalanche is kavaliauskiene Western sanctions, no cancel, the abyss is approaching collapse of the Russian economy, which will follow new sanctions and embargoes. Yes, the money is there, and large, but where to go, if after the change of power “Kremlin” will still find, in any civilized country? In Seychelles? But what is there to do?! Our moral behavior is even worse than the exile of Napoleon on St. Helena island. So they will cling to power until the last minute to shoot “the last cartridge”, to grasp at straws like a drowning man. They have something to lose.
Today Western sanctions is not sanctions. This is just a warning. Ammonia, which is brought to the nose “Kremlin”, didn't work – they are completely laid noses. In the USA already there are voices on the necessity of imposing the embargo on the purchase of oil in Russia and its disconnection from the banking system SWIFT. The decline in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel would undermine the Russian economy, though not as much as a total embargo on the purchase of oil. That's more than half the country's budget! Add to that the SWIFT paralyzed and Bank payments, you don't need to be psychic to foresee: Russia's economy will collapse. It needs no special education to understand a simple truth: without exchange and without a balanced state of the banking system, the device cannot function. We have to work he can, but the results of this work will leave in a whistle.
What will follow? Disappoint hawks – no, not the Third world. Someone really would like to “rattle guns”, but there is nothing. Bluff on the military superiority of the Russian army on NATO's internal use. In the Kremlin have not considered not considered and never will consider the variant of the decision of any question with the West from a position of strength. Nuclear blackmail on camera, but this one is for the faint of heart, zombies, and schizophrenics. Today Russia is inferior militarily to NATO countries on all indicators almost three times. To begin to compete with Western countries (USA, Canada, EU) on the part of the arms, when their combined GDP is more than 50% of the world, while Russia is only 2%, can not only completely healthy people. The arms race is finished, the Soviet Union, albeit one much less dependent on the West than the current Russia.
What to do in the Kremlin? Try as much as possible to maintain the status quo, which is entirely dependent on the relations with Ukraine. In this regard, we can expect only one thing – the continuation of the war in the East of the neighbouring country. This is Putin's plan. All forces and means Ukraine will have to spend on this war. To stop this war – not in Moscow's interests, otherwise the whole world will remember annexed the Crimea. If the Kremlin will give the Crimea to Ukraine (imagine the impossible), Putin's vertical of power will fold like a house of cards, after all, “patriots of Russia” immediately the question arises: “Putin is a traitor?!” It's even worse complete isolation or external intervention. Means that the Kremlin will continue to ridicule the Donbass until, while in the United States in early 2017, will assume his new duties the President is likely representative of the Republican party. The probability of introducing new, murderous sanctions against Russia will grow.
We know where we studied the current leaders of Russia, but we don't know who taught them so cleverly to destroy their state. Not being able to do neither Napoleon, nor William, nor Hitler, Putin does. Russia will not survive in isolation, it is systemically tied to world markets, to convert its raw material economy into subsistence farming will not work nor ten, nor a hundred years. We all witnessed how this colossus with feet of clay will begin to crack and crumble.
Herman Obuhov, coordinator of the International coalition "Stop fascism in Russia"
Source: http://rusjev.net/
