Fighting has lost all intensity. Neither the Ukrainian army nor the enemy does not conduct combat operations. Discontinued massive artillery strikes. And everyone, especially the military, the question arises — what next? How long is deceptive silence, where stray bullets whistling? The resumption of large-scale war? Will there be a political solution, peace, and how long will the ATO?

This was written by the chief editor of the website Censor.NET Yuriy Butusov, in his article "When the war is over?" ZN.UA.

Will there be peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Quick solution to the war in the Donbas has not. Someone has to win and someone to lose. Putin has not and never had the strength to seize the Ukraine — the Crimea and the Donbas were the levers, through the seizure of which he tried to provoke the collapse of Ukraine from the inside. Russia cannot occupy the 45-million country, she needs a friendly government in it to Ukraine again left a raw materials appendage to the Moscow metropolis. Ukraine protects its independence, but we don't have strategies and tools in order to clean the Donbass and the Crimea from the occupants. Shaky truce arose not from a desire of Russia and Ukraine to build relations on a new basis, and due to the inability of the parties to achieve supremacy in the war. The war ends when one side admits defeat. Either Russia will leave the Donbass, and then from the Crimea and Transnistria. Either Ukraine recognizes the legitimate occupation of its territory by Russian troops and begin to build with Russia relations on this basis. Russia's withdrawal from the region is the political collapse of the current Russian government. Care of Ukraine will have the same catastrophic consequences for the Ukrainian authorities. To distinguish the Donbass impossible, to raise troops is impossible, it is impossible to withdraw, demilitarized zone is very small, and therefore armed clashes are inevitable. To bring the situation back to the starting point Russia as the aggressor is obliged to withdraw its troops. But Putin will not go for it. Russian Imperial messianism pushes the current Russian "Tsar" to the escalation of violence. The fact that no other resources impact, except power and raw materials, Russia has no. To give up the power for the Russian leadership is to reject influence. Putin it is important that the Donbass remained open wound of Ukraine so that you can continue to use war as a means of influence on Ukrainian politics and the economy. Uncontrolled bandit enclaves of the Russian Federation in Transnistria, Crimea and Donbass allows Russia to establish a permanent threat to Ukraine, and this problem has only peaceful solution is the inclusion of power tools is inevitable.

What is happening at the front?

The war continues. And she will not be terminated. But now the tank and artillery units play the function of deterrence forces, indicate a potential willingness to enter the war. However, intelligence, sabotage enemy units act against us constantly. The war continues, the people perish. If the army is in position, and even once a week someone dies and almost every day someone hurt — so the war continues. This means that the nature of warfare at the front has changed. The enemy changed tactics, and instead of large-scale operations are a small group of saboteurs. Their task is not to destroy a reference point or to break through the front line, and to inflict casualties on the Ukrainian troops in manpower. At the same time the opponent is prepared for various scenarios of development of the situation on the front is amassing an army of permanent readiness, conducting military training. Military vehicles, tanks, artillery of the enemy are still at the forefront, the removal of equipment from the demilitarized zone, the enemy simply can not afford. Lull at the front is very misleading. It's not the end of the war. This is the scenario of low-intensity conflict.

What will be the nature of war and tactics of the Russian command?

The low intensity war is a war of attrition of Ukraine, which will consist of rare shelling by tanks and mortars, some raids howitzers. However, will continue to operate in full reconnaissance, raids will continue saboteurs and the laying of mines and roadside bombs. Will shoot the snipers. The scenario of hostilities — war small groups on the front lines with low density of troops. These actions will be wearing maneuverable nature. In the first place in the tactics of the actions of the saboteurs, as well as in the anti-sabotage actions will have the element of surprise. Objects actions — strikes not at the most protected objects, and Vice versa, in the most vulnerable places. That is why the enemy has stepped up the war on the communications in the rear middle of the Ukrainian troops and regularly carries out sabotage raids for the purpose of mining at the forefront of the front road.

The main difference war is the apparent desire of the enemy to wage war with the conservation of manpower. The Russian command has very limited human resources and tries to minimize their losses and maximize our without the use of heavy weapons, or episodic use of heavy machinery. Enemy generates efficient and complete connection of constant readiness. Putin expects in case of any internal instability in Ukraine to have an efficient army of mercenaries, which will be ready for combat. Hence, the intensification of military operations in the Donbass can occur at any time. And while the enemy is using the situation for testing in combat conditions of their new connections.

The tasks of the Ukrainian command, the soldiers and commanders at the tactical level

Based on a change of tactics and the nature of warfare, it is necessary to draw the right conclusions for the organization of actions of the Ukrainian troops. Now the main threat from the enemy — not massed tank attacks, and the actions of sabotage and reconnaissance groups, mine warfare on the roads in our line of defense and near the rear of our positions.

The main objective in organizing the defense area for the Ukrainian command is at this stage not a defense and the concentration of forces on the support points, and the organization of the system of military intelligence, battle convoy, covert patrols in their area of responsibility.

Special emphasis should be placed on stealth action. Many inexperienced units in case a threat is detected or in case of indirect provoking attacks of our positions open return fire on the premises. This is a big mistake. Because DRG opponent does not have a large population, the fire area is ineffective. Indirect attacks aim to identify our fire system and the defense system. Don't aid the enemy. In the fight against DRG crucial to ensure the secrecy order approximation to our advanced positions was dangerous for the enemy maneuver.

Many people think that frequent shooting around the reference point intimidates the enemy. Whit. For experienced saboteurs indiscriminate firing is the best bait and demonstration of low levels. In this case the enemy should not attack the defensive midfielder is panic unsighted shooting on any rustling and any stray bullet. DRG will bypass the holding midfielder and lay mines on the road to it.

The arrangement of secrets and raids patrols to cover the routes of supply, which is primarily to act secretly, quietly, to change locations. In such patrols and secrets must identify the most disciplined fighters. We cannot allow a long stay in secret by small groups of soldiers. Secrets needs to perform its function, for this there should be a rotation. I often had to watch at the front after a multi-week stay in the secret fighters completely forgot about the need to act secretly, and this secret was no different from the field camp. Now, the key is called a secret because it's a surprise for the enemy.

The tasks of the Ukrainian command at the strategic level

Unfortunately, the complete absence of institutional reforms in the army does not allow to say that the command will be able to build a smart strategy. The strategy was before, not now. There is a set of unrelated activities that are not bound to another the changing nature of war.

However, to suggest where we should focus attention on the strategic level, we have to.

You need to change the recruitment system. We have repeatedly written about the need for selection of personnel and direction in infantry units on the frontline of the most quality contributions. Unfortunately, about 30% of the draftees sent to the Air force, another 30% in parts of Central subordination of the General staff and the Ministry of defense, and only about 30% is directed to the replenishment of ground forces. The priority right to select the best recruits are highly mobile landing troops. This is a normal approach to the recruitment into the army, which does not correspond to the tactical situation.

Despite the importance of creating strategic reserves, the brunt of the fighting is still on advanced infantry units.

For the war of low intensity, as it shows the whole world the experience of dozens of armed conflict, the main importance is not the number of troops and resources, and quality control, qualitative superiority in military training, the organization of combat actions.

Has no sense to keep at the forefront of "avatars" or unmotivated. It overextends his power and waste consumes resources.

Need to change the model of management of armies. Sector headquarters finally outlived its usefulness. Focus teams on one sector of the front requires the transfer of full responsibility it is the brigade command.

Need to pay special attention to the replacement command staff, working with officers. Huge shortage of officers and NCOs, especially the commanders of platoons and divisions, requires immediate action for the appointment of officers and non-commissioned positions experienced soldiers.

Their training must be carried in the front line in an expedited manner.

The lack of competent commanders at the grassroots level is a core problem of the organization of the fighting in war.

You should pay special attention to the organization of military intelligence. Unfortunately, the military intelligence service in the armed forces as a system of non-existent. The General staff has not made any effort to establish it. Instead of recognizing this problem, the bureaucrats in the stripes "transfer direction" in intelligence, although according to all the ordinances of the military intelligence up to 10 kilometers is responsible for forward. Don't need RAID, but at least its neutral line and the grey area of military intelligence in every part of should know inside out.

The problem of leadership of the state

In the second year of the war it is necessary to create effective and not bogus strategy of warfare. It is necessary to adopt the strategy of reform of the defence sector. If hired "Rand" — so just stop talking, let us introduce their concept. There's nothing I'd previously written and spoken Ukrainian experts, it may well be routinely updated.

The NATO leadership is perplexed by the inability of the Ukrainian leadership to shape strategy and reforms. Imitation of reforms undermines the trust of our partners and seriously reduces the possibility of receiving Western military aid.

We need to focus all efforts on creating a capable armed forces and the national guard on a professional basis. You need to create effective and integrated intelligence system, to build a modern intelligence community. To do this, already have all the resources.

As you can cause damage to Russia?

Russia is actually in a very vulnerable situation. Messianic Putin's strategy forced him to open one by one all new foreign policy fronts, pressure to join the arms race amid a sharp economic downturn and crisis in the Russian Federation.

Russia is highly vulnerable not in a direct military confrontation, and like Brezhnev of the USSR — to the indirect action. If on the front for the Russian command extremely painful losses in manpower, economic and political levers of pressure on the Kremlin will be important, too.

Ukraine has a powerful levers of influence on Russia. We can also use contractio against Russian troops in the Donbas and to start a war on the communications of the enemy. Our goal is not to destroy the Russian army in one blow, and to strike a "minor cuts".

Should dramatically increase the economic and financial burden on the Russian Federation.

For Putin will be a heavy blow, if Ukraine will start a real economic war on the occupied territories of the Crimea, Donbass, Transnistria. Action against Transnistria should be an integral part of Ukraine's strategy of increased cost of war for Putin. Russia needs to spend resources on the supply and maintenance of the occupied territories — and the more the better. This will increase pressure on the Russian budget would undermine the resource base of the enemy. The enclave in Transnistria should be subjected to an economic blockade even more rigid than the Crimea. Because the elimination of the threat on the southern flank and the weakening of the enemy in this direction allows to eliminate the strategic threat of Odessa region and will allow our allies to Moldova and Romania — start a more vigorous policy on the return of the occupied Moldovan lands.

Conclusion

Peace will not come, unless there is a change in the political situation. The situation could be changed, if Ukraine will build coping strategies, and expand the Arsenal of methods of warfare and the effectiveness of available forces and means, both military and political and economic nature.

All this means that Ukraine must anticipate your opponent in the pace of modernization of the combat component, as well as to gain exposure to. The war continues and will go on to victory. We stopped Putin. But this is not a victory. Victory will come only after the complete expulsion of the invaders from the Ukrainian land. And it won't happen by itself — this is the result we have to work. Peace for Ukraine will win.

МБФ "СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ" / ICF "GLORY TO UKRAINE" / FIB "GLOIRE À L'UKRAINE"