We have repeatedly written about the fact that the situation in Russia will deteriorate discretely. Smooth reduction of fat, in the form of stabilization funds and other things, will not decrease to zero, but to a certain psychological barrier, after which begins a sharp decrease of all available resources.

Part 1

These funds we mean because the revenue from main income in the budget will not grow. This is due both to the decrease in the prices of oil and gas and reduced exports. Moreover, the second aspect is due to two parallel processes. Products of the Russian Federation are beginning to substitute competitors ' products and just technological limitations that are a consequence of sanctions. That is, more and more expensive to sell oil and gas has not come out, and I want to walk as well. In this case, you have to use a stash that was not intended to touch before the "Black day". It should be noted that here all the decencies observed. Putin himself created a "rainy day" funds is now cut in a very short period. And there are signs that now is overcome the psychological threshold up to which the funds were dealt with without fuss, but more on this below.

Retreat No. 1

As you know, U.S. military doctrine based on the possibility of conducting two major military campaigns in the different theatres of war. Under this doctrine sharpen everything to do with defense. Simply put, the States are always preparing for war on two fronts. The success of this doctrine was reaffirmed during WWII, where the States quite successfully fought in the Pacific and in Africa and Europe. Very importantly, both of these theatre of war was remote and was located in ten thousand kilometres from places of permanent stationing of the army and Navy. The scope of operations remains unsurpassed to this day. Logistics alone is worth something! Now, the States have the resources, experience and ability to conduct such campaigns. For the first time Russia got into something similar. If the war in Donbass has a transboundary nature and logistics are simplified to a bare minimum, then a second front in Syria — a remote theatre of operations, which must be ensured logistics for the entire period of military operations. It is expensive that only rich countries. Remember that.

Digression No. 2

Surveying the producers of Russian weapons, it is easy to see that this is a highly sharpened state Corporation, financed either from the budget or expormim contracts for arms supplies. It is worth noting that the export contracts of the USSR/the Russian Federation tricky business. On the basis of data on the supply of weapons, Russia is number 2 in the world, but if you look closely at these contracts, it appears that Afghanistan, Cuba, Syria, Iraq and others — are almost never paid on contracts, and the debts were written off. As a result, it is impossible to call it supply, it's more of a gift. If "buyers" are expected to take only what they are going to pay, the number of buyers would fall through the floor.

On the contrary, if you take an American or European arms manufacturers: Bing, Raytheon, General dynamics, Krupp, and other Rheinmetal, it becomes obvious that most of the income they receive is not from weapons. The creation of new types of weapons involves significant investments in R & d, resulting in new materials or technologies that are used in civil production. It gives them an advantage over those competitors who are unable to pay billions for research.

All this gives a completely different system of interaction of businesses with government, which creates a different burden on the economy. It's an entirely different philosophy.

Retreat No. 3

While we cannot speak about this as a fait accompli, but as a process. It is now visible elements draining Russia not only of Lugandan, but also of the Crimea. It's understandable how the Russians treat the enterprises and the infrastructure of the regions. Does the owner not planning to stay long, but a temporary worker. But the most important thing is that the occupier, contrary to all norms of international law, refuses to Fund, and, therefore, to include these areas. What was originally planned for release in the rebel regions have been cut more and more, and already heard the explanation that the money for them. If you have no money, this is nothing but draining. Powerful without any funding the rebellion or the war will end automatically, because it is a very expensive event.

Next, we will outline our views, as consistent with the above digressions, merges all of the Russian Federation.

Part 2

Having dealt with deviations, go to the essence. We have already quoted the opinion of the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Ulyukayev that if the current rate of expenditure of reserves to cover the budget deficit caused by expenses on power structures, which reached 30% for all costs and expenses, all reserves of the Russian Federation will be exhausted by the end of 2016. This means that at this level of militarization of economy, Russia will be able to survive the remainder of the current year and next year. But this is on the condition that the rate of expenditure will not increase.

Bet some of the Russian theorists that the military-industrial complex, infused with huge amounts of money, will be the locomotive of the entire economy, are very optimistic. There are several reasons. The main one — not the willingness of the military-industrial complex to the production of modern weapons, for many lost technologies, and new developments may not meet the requirements of even yesterday. Sometimes Dmitry Rogozin, responsible for the MIC, then he breaks through and produces texts that show a true picture of the industry. Dependence on imported materials, components and accessories, total. Wear — two-thirds, and so on and so forth. Now the defence industry of the Russian Federation moves from European and us imports to China. It is clear that the General level of military technology Russia has gone below China. It is not surprising that the Indians, called by Moscow to join the production of armored vehicles, aircraft and ships, seeing who, how and what rivet guns in Russia, shut his nose and ran away from there forever.

Returning to Ulyukayev, the logical conclusion that we should abandon game "Zarnitsa" and cutting the budget to the security forces, go on a diet and hope that the West will remove sanctions, and then to urgently restructure the economy. But none of that happens, the defense industry is filled with financing under the neck, but even if there pouring still more, he physically cannot issue the required quality and quantity of arms. And let's not forget that the interest rate cut in Russia has already exceeded 50%. That is, every second ruble will be stolen, and the production will run only on the first ruble. How does this affect the quantity and quality of products — everyone decides for himself.

On this background is intensive preparations for the ground troops of the Russian Federation to Syria. Rather, they are already there, and now there is a transfer of new units, equipment and ammunition. For this purpose, Turkey has urgently purchased and repainted in grey six bulk carriers. Amphibious ships can not cope with the movement of troops, so the bulk carriers have the military transport. That is, while substantially reducing fiscal revenues, the Kremlin tying the country into another ground war in a remote theater of operations.

Against this background, already went to reduce all budget expenditures, except for military police. And at this moment get the key that opens the secret safe! Shares of the largest producer of armored vehicles in the Russian "Uralvagonzavod", which is to produce the famous "Armata", becomes the property of "Gazprombank" for debts. That is the Corporation "Gazprom", we repeatedly wrote earlier, I'll just clarify that in addition to its head Alexei Miller, whom Putin started back in the sixes with Sobchak, the rest of the Board, all of office, which perform any of the teams big boss. In turn, Putin himself is the owner of more than 4.5% of Gazprom. Not surprising that Gazprom is one of Putin's personal pockets. And that's exactly Gazprom's "daughter" goes Uralvagonzavod, which, like some other military-industrial complex begin to be poured huge amounts of money saved by retirees, teachers, doctors and other!

And here is the time to think about the rate of Russian pullback, has exceeded 50%. So here these incredible tools will raspylivatelja to citizen Putin! But this is only one case, other enterprises about the same picture, though the cut is there and is not as direct. In any case, as in Donetsk and Luhansk, Russian citizens have already said that money is not and will not, because Russia is fighting with America in Ukraine and now in Syria. Everyone needs to tighten their belts and everything. But Lugandan already know that this is a prelude draining, and many people are not aware of.

Or rather — ordinary Russians do not know. But those who understand how the system works already realized that sometimes the dough is stopped, and the First cutting of the latter. This signal is given to those who have the opportunity to go to the personal budget with a saw. Then, from that point, we are transported to the beginning of our story, after which we went into "retreat". This is the point when it becomes clear that smooth eating away the remnants of funds — will not. They begin to shred the last time and those who come late will be left with nothing. So the Minister of Finance the speaker correctly and accurately said that the current "level" of costs would Deplete the funds by the end of 2016, but he said nothing about the rate of increase of expenditure, and they spin as the flywheel!

If Luganchanka operation flew into Moscow a pretty penny, Syria will be much more expensive. If so, then funds will be allocated more, and it means that the cut will be powerful. And "tomorrow" in Russia Putin and Co sawed in 2014, now they cut everything from day after tomorrow. Here it is draining Russia, happening right in front of their own people, under his stormy and prolonged applause! Tellingly, the West is also satisfied, because there know exactly how this will end. But to fill up this monster without firing a single shot, then — to go down in history, as there came Ronald Reagan, who made most of the work on the elimination of scoop. The liquidators of the Russian leper colony, too, will go down in history among the Laurel crowns! And here that is surprising — all will be well. Perhaps Putin had received guarantees of immunity in the West and even bargained that money from the last cut can not deny it, under guarantee that he will finish dying two-headed snake with his own hands. He and his team will be well, the West is good, Russia's neighbors will be fine, Iran will be super, because he can come back to life like the prodigal son, and the Russians are even now good! So all will be just fine, just a little perrished political map of the world in the place where it is still listed in the Russian Federation. Here Asad forgot. Perhaps, he will be fine, not like Muammar. Perhaps he will end quickly and painlessly.

Source: http://defence-line.org/

МБФ "СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ" / ICF "GLORY TO UKRAINE" / FIB "GLOIRE À L'UKRAINE"