The further the situation develops under economic strangulation of Russia and its elite, the more risky any military adventures in their performance.
Since the days of sun Tzu, we all know that a long military campaign, even winning,can prove to be a Pyrrhic victory, when the resources expended to achieve goals, exceed considerably the value of the goal. Putin has chosen two wars, in which he even win unable. Of course, he can unleash everything he's got, but at this point, the price will just grow to monstrous values and will bury any military activities.
It is worth remembering what state was Russia and then the USSR from the world wars. Loss industry, resources and people were so huge that needed decades to get at least to pre-war levels. No wonder Soviet history books were filled with charts and graphs the growth of industry in comparison with 1914, the pre-war year. As the USSR came to his senses after the Second World War, many already know, and you know how it ended.
Today's Russia is economically unable to pull global conflict. Even a local conflict of medium intensity she can't do anything. At least no self-sufficient military-industrial complex, which will be regularly make up the inevitable losses. But most importantly, war is very expensive, and wrote the ancient Chinese General. Major conflict includes a powerful pump that drains out of the economy's most liquid resources. Army it is necessary to feed, cure, Shoe and arm, it should motivate money (if war is not defensive). Weight equipment consumes kilotons of fuel, the trains of ammunition and requires components and assemblies for repair. Regarding the last point, most high-tech components used in the Russian technology and weapons and import. Even if we consider that the sanctions on the defence industry will be forced to buy this from China, obviously poorer quality and lower generation, you have to pay.
Given the fact that the Finance of the Russian Federation,louder sing songs, then the possibility of effective fighting, is steadily decreasing. In addition, a mean-spirited character of warfare, do the officers and generals of the Russian Federation, war criminals, accomplices of power. This means that the discipline will not be achieved, because what can be demanded from the military, which explain: in which case, you're in itself. This situation gives the green light to total looting of military supplies. It is a kind of compensation for risk. Therefore, from every 100 roubles, sent to war, will lose at least 50% on the way to the goal.
Now, the war in Syria or Lugandan, looks about the same. For action, there needs to gush the gigantic flow of funds. Obviously, two fronts of the Russian Federation no longer pulls. In Syria needed a small victorious war, and there sunk a lot of money. But for Russia, there is a war of low intensity. The Russian army does not yet have direct contact with the enemy. But things are changing. It seems that in anticipation of the lifting of sanctions with Iran, the latter will have to choose: or to get the ability to sell oil, or to play in the Syrian military. Here the choice is obvious. Most likely, Syria will remain those who choose to fight on your own risk without support from Iran itself. And at this moment, Iranian cannon fodder, it will be necessary to change to Russian. All this goes.
Once the Russian ground forces will become the main striking force, the situation will change. For Russia, this means increasing the intensity of the fighting. Today's costs will be children's toys. In addition, at the borders with Syria already deployed forces and resources of neighbouring countries who are willing to take the side of the Syrian opposition. But before that, the opposition will get anti-aircraft systems and dramatically replenish anti-tank missile systems. That's when the game "destroyed the headquarters" is over. Is Russia ready for such a scenario — we'll see. One thing is clear, once the Russian Federation becomes embroiled in a similar wheelhouse in Syria or Ukraine, it's the last thing she can do. For when "digivoice", the USSR received a huge flow of funding and supply of all necessary from the States. Without this support, all would have ended quickly and sadly. Now Russia has no bases and no friends. Run out of money — the war ends, and with it Russia.
Source: http://defence-line.org/
МБФ "СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ" / ICF "GLORY TO UKRAINE" / FIB "GLOIRE À L'UKRAINE"
