Political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky in an interview Newsader predicted the President of the Russian Federation inevitable defeat in the West, where, according to the analyst, drove his own environment through Ramzan Kadyrov performing for the Kremlin Putin's opponents service provocateur.

Ambulance replacement the inevitable overbearing personalities without guaranteed regime change – this is the forecast of the expert, the position of which is set out below.

A. K.: Andrei Andreevich, don't You think that we are on the verge of a serious rift in the once slender ranks of the Kremlin? On the one hand – the move Gref, on the other hand, threats from Kadyrov.

A. P.: I Really do think that. Relations between Putin aggravated with the whole range of its expanded Politburo.

Let's start with the Gaidar forum is an annual Assembly of the wealthy and imposing persons, during the last quarter of the century responsible for the economic policy of our government. They keep saying year after year that they have made a historic feat by creating in Russia a “market economy”.

But now everyone knows that the fruit of their efforts became something else, namely, the feudal-mafia state in which there is no institution of private property, any property is bestowed and taken away by the suzerain, and political leaders themselves are active businessmen. In this sense, it is incorrect to speak of the existence in Russia of corruption, because the latter implies the existence of two entities – the entrepreneur giving a bribe to the official. In Russia this is one and the same person, starting with the President. The fall in oil prices, sanctions and the lack of opportunities to refinance in the West, of course, accelerated by the Russian crisis, but not they, namely, incapable of economic development “thieves ' obshchak” – the main reason for the current collapse.

On the forum this thought let muffled, but sounded, including from Mr. Gref, who loves to show off in sonorous language. He called Russia a “country downshifters” falling out of world technological progress. A correct characterization, but pretty weird sounding in the mouth of a man who for decades was the Minister of economic development and was responsible for the state of the Russian economy. If she became a “downshifter”, Gref is one of the first persons of whose fault it happened.

Very typical phenomenon for the participants of the forum: acknowledging the debacle of economic policy, they are by default shifted the responsibility to an unnamed. he was referring, of course, first of all, Putin, though, in my opinion, their personal share of the blame in the current state of the Russian economy is much higher compared to personal interests head of the Kremlin. On the conscience of the latter – not so much economic as geopolitical miscalculations. Moreover, the basic structure of a mafia feudalism was created before Putin came into power. Moreover, it is the same audience was given the hand in the Kremlin to this structure to preserve and protect.

However, instead of going to a monastery to atone for their sins, the main market of the country has declared its readiness to continue to work with the unfortunate “downshifters” and promised that, if they are given the opportunity to steer and further, that by 2030 you only listen! – by 2030, Russia will become comfortable for living country. This is a parody on the Declaration of the Congress of the CPSU in 1961, according to which “the current generation of Soviet people” had to live “under communism” in 1980.

A. K.: don't You find here the manifestation of blackmail by the financial unit to the Kremlin?

AP: To some extent, Yes, because attending the forum “elite” is extremely dissatisfied with foreign policy and the deterioration of relations with Euro-Atlantic civilization – primarily because they lose billions in the capitalization of their assets. Let me remind you that they are all practicing very wealthy “businessmen”, for that matter, Putin and his siloviki. Of course, not only in money but also in lifestyle: treatment, education, families and mistresses – all of this is rapidly moving West.

A. K.: the antics of Kadyrov's men – is also a reaction to an impending catastrophe?

A. P.: You have rightly pointed out the growing tension between Putin and the other part of his environment – the security forces are always assumed to be its main support. This happens against the background of the problem Kadyrov. The fact that law enforcement officers never liked Putin's project “Kadyrov”. They believed that Putin has deprived them of victory in Chechnya, signed a deal with Kadyrov deal and giving him de facto independence, which could not dream of Dudaev and Maskhadov.

Security officials have long waited for the right moment to start a campaign to remove Kadyrov and, finally, used the murder of Nemtsov. Believe that they themselves participated in the crime, because without them, the elimination of such level policy on red square was impossible. Most likely, the head of the Chechen Republic suggested an appropriate opportunity, explaining that “it was Papa's”, and immediately grabbed the actual killers, which leads directly to Delimkhanov and Kadyrov.

In the end, Putin was trapped: he had to cover up the investigation into the murder of Nemtsov, forcing be limited to some unknown driver, calling him a great customer. The FSB has been defeated, Putin gave Kadyrov.

However, recent media performances of Kadyrov sharply antagonize all Russian society, despite the fact that the threat applies only to liberals. This plays into the hands of the security forces, which again may require Putin to remove Kadyrov, relying on wide public support.

It is obvious that Kadyrov is playing the play appears not only as the leader of an independent state, but also as a subject claiming to solve the issues outside of that state – i.e. as an external aggressor. Oil was added to the fire history with Krasnoyarsk Deputy, which the Chechen Diaspora has forced a humiliating to apologize to Kadyrov. In the end, Putin was the only person who protects not very, to put it mildly, loved the Russian people of Chechen leader. One of the opposition leaders, Navalny, as you know, already accused Kadyrov's intention to formalize the separation of Chechnya from Russia and to create an Islamic state.

The result for Putin is that he suddenly lost the unconditional support from the two corporations: financial unit on one side and power on the other. This is an absolute new situation that allows to expect extraordinary political developments in 2016.

A. K.: it Turns out that the frightening messages of Chechen representatives is not a special operation, Putin is thought by some, and provoked by its elitist opponents attack, Kadyrov, the Russian President is doing a hostage game?

AP: Or just suicidal stupidity... Kadyrov kadyrovtsy understands that Putin is his hostage, because Kadyrov to recognize the enemy means for Putin to lose the basis of its legitimacy. He came to power promising to dunk in the toilet of terrorists and Chechen separatists, and now it appears that he has not won, and lost, because he gave Chechnya the enemy and pays him tribute.

However, the Chechen leader makes a big mistake, exaggerating Putin's ability to hold the situation under control, because the cartridge was in a very vulnerable position amid the isolation of not only external, but internal emerging, and even amid large-scale economic devastation. Her crackpot statements Kadyrov does not help the boss, but also enhances its insulation, not only opposing Putin and the siloviki Silybum, but to the entire Russian society.

In the end, I have formed a conspiracy hypothesis that the FSB has introduced Kadyrov surrounded by some agent, which stimulates the Chechens in cascade such threats: they are playing against Putin and anticancerous reinforcing the arguments of the security forces, undermine the Foundation itself under the leadership of the Chechen

A. K.: what is this game?

AP: the most serious consequences. The worst is the third Chechen. As for me, I've said the coexistence of the Russian and Chechen ethnic groups in one state impossible. For me this became clear after the murder of Politkovskaya. She was a Saint: what was she doing to the Chechens – it's incredible. However, it was the Chechens who killed her. Knew all of Chechen society, and it did not prevent him from sheltering the criminals for a long time lived on the territory of the Republic. After what we did there for several centuries, they hate all the Russians. We sent Leo Tolstoy in his 17th Chapter “Hadji Murad”. They are not going to understand our shades. We are all the same – Politkovskaya, Boris Nemtsov. Putin. Just Putin today useful for them Gyaur (approx. edited by: GYAUR – shunned all infidels in Islam).

In this situation, in two ways: either a new war against the Chechens, which can result in the attempted genocide of this long-suffering people, or the complete separation of Chechnya from Russia and making it as an independent state formation. I insist on the second option. The current situation is shameful for Kadyrov humiliated Russia, as well as fatal to Chechnya, which at any time may hang the sword of Damocles of another “restore constitutional order”.

A. K.: Wanting a third Chechen, it turns out that one of the Kremlin towers wants to dethrone Putin, right?

AP: If he will continue to cover Kadyrov, Yes. They were opponents of the current Russian-Chechen status quo. While Putin was strong enough – in oil money and in the light of public fame, power, the environment was ready to tolerate it. Now that Putin's position is sharply