Until Russia gets involved in military conflicts, the surrounding countries are trying to profit from this situation, and the most far — sighted business plan tomorrow, given the fact where will be Russia after all these wars.
In China we wrote time and again, he will not miss her, but the most interesting events are unfolding in Europe. It is known that being at the crossroads of potential pipelines to Europe, Turkey began to position itself as a kind of a gas hub. In fact, gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, Qatar or Arabia will certainly be included in Europe via Turkey. Even the huge reserves, which begins to develop Israel into the depths of the Mediterranean sea, also needs to connect to a Turkish collector, if you have the desire to trade with Europe. It is clear that Gazprom wanted to take the Turkish direction. But the Turks decided to keep it, getting a elegant discount on gas here all providers. As a result, Turkey has one foot on the brink of war with Russia.
However, in the North of Europe emerges another such hub. It seems that Poland has chosen to become a gas hub for Northern and Central Europe. Recently passed the message that in Poland arrived for the second carrier from the Gulf. Here is a very important position in Germany. Don't be the "Nord stream 1" and plans for "Nord stream 2", Germany itself would have taken on the role of a collector alternative to Gazprom gas flows. But it did not work due to wholesale purchase of German energy companies, politicians, whole political movements and the media all the same Gazprom. And Berlin, though not recklessly, but lobbying for the interests of Gazprom. In this situation Poland had the chance to seize the initiative and she is trying to do. The balance here is simple. Someone asked ourselves the question: what if there were * a direct military confrontation between the armed forces of NATO and Russia? Don't let it be a global fight, but still. The answer is obvious — the embargo on Russian goods, including oil and gas.
It is clear that Germany will be obliged to shut down pipes from Russia. A disaster will not happen, just Thrifty Germans tighten up energy efficiency, will launch additional capacity of renewable energy and, though they don't like — will build the power plant and a coal thermal power plant rekonstruiruet. In that moment Poland will have not only alternative supply for their own needs, but may provide movement of gas throughout Northern Europe, including Germany and Denmark. But there are some "but". First, the capacity of the LNG terminal in świnoujście is clearly not enough. This problem, in principle, can be solved as quickly and capital. There are already projects to expand the terminal. The creation of a new industrial facility from scratch is always more difficult than expanding its capacity. The second problem is infrastructure. To ensure supply of gas outside Poland, you need to build multiple pipeline crossings. Now this question is actively discussed, but on the German side the ego was blocked by several large companies, including BASF, which is co-owned Gazprom.
In addition, to establish an alternative to at least part of Gazprom's gas, Polish companies should leave a spot in the mental, and the Arabs, to dolgorucky the required amount. Significant volumes run into the gas storage tank. Poland right now has started the construction of new storage facilities and conducts careful negotiations with Ukraine, which has Europe's largest underground gas storage facility.
The fact that Poland is seriously included in the game, evidenced by the purchase of PKN Orlen 11% stake in the LNG terminal "Goldboro" in Nova-Scotia, Canada. That is, the poles initially provide diversification of gas supply. It is known that the new draft of the Polish energy companies already interested in Norway. In short, Germany was playing Russia in raspille-sliding game on the construction of gas pipelines and conceded the initiative in the matter, the relevance of which Moscow picks up daily.
So as a conclusion — Poland we do the same with oil. She began preparing its infrastructure for the consumption and not export of Russian oil. Someone loses, and someone finds it.
Source: http://defence-line.org/
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