Interview well-known Russian-American historian Yuri Georgievich felshtinskogo Kiev Russian journal "Business", which the editors refused to publish, but it appeared on the pages of other publications.

Recently Vladimir Putin visited annexed by Russia in the Crimea. As you can see, this visit and his rhetoric about the fact that the Russian army will be equipped with the most advanced weapons and it will belong to the field of strategic offensive arms?

- Putin is preparing for a big war. After the occupation of the Crimea in March 2014, the world was divided into optimists and pessimists. The first thought that Putin will stop on the Crimea. The second is that Crimea is only the beginning, the first step of a long journey, scheduled for Putin. Unfortunately, the Crimean Peninsula was surrendered without a fight. Then all this rejoiced, and Russia, and Ukraine, and the whole world - that there were no casualties. The only thing that we heard from European and American leaders: let Putin will say that the Crimea all limited, and we all live in the old way. Instead, Putin declared for all the world that the time has come to correct the historical errors of 1991, which resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Union. This tune is about the correct historical mistakes - we now each morning and hear in different ways; we are now under her Wake up and fall asleep. Wake up in the morning and climb to the Internet: has entered the Russian forces in Ukraine or not. That's the reality, which was created by Putin in March 2014.

Successful blitzkrieg capture of the Crimea has created euphoria in Russia and finally turned the head of Putin himself. He began classical dizziness from success. What happened then in the Donbass, in Lugansk and even in Odessa is the result, on the one hand, an overall strategic plan for rectification of historical errors, 1991, and on the other the result of a bloodless surrender Ukraine Crimea. In the Crimea really escaped the bloodshed. But now Ukraine has the war in the East, hundreds of victims (maybe thousands?), and this war threatens to expand and from the Russian-Ukrainian smooth transition into the world.

- Is it inevitable?

- World war? No. It is not inevitable. Now the pre-war period. It is not for Russia and Ukraine prewar (these countries are already in the war). He pre-war for the rest of the world. Of course, the opportunity to stop the war there. This possibility is always there. And many big wars, probably, prevented, and so we don't know about them and they are not studied. But those steps that are now Russia, could not fail to lead to war. We are talking not only about the Crimea and Donbass - Lugansk. We are talking not only about Ukraine. We are talking about the whole of Europe. Military exercises conducted by Russia in all the border areas, from the Kuril Islands to the Kaliningrad region from the Black sea to the Baltic. Cancelled unilaterally enough technical bilateral military agreements that even no one pays attention. For example, 5 may 2014 under the noise of the fighting in Eastern Ukraine, the Russian government unilaterally tore signed in 2001 with Lithuania bilateral agreement on additional confidence-building measures and security. Under this agreement, if to mean Russia, the Russian side was obliged to exchange information with Lithuania about its military facilities in the Kaliningrad region and to carry out jointly with the Lithuanian side of their military inspection. Lithuania followed all the terms of this agreement and has not given cause for the gap.

"This move demonstrates its unwillingness to provide mutual trust and can be considered as another step towards the destruction of mutual confidence and security in Europe", - was stated in the official statement of the Ministry of defence of Lithuania on the occasion. Note we are talking about Kaliningrad, i.e. the furthest Western point of Russia. Now combine this with the last speech of Putin's creation of a powerful military base in the Crimea, and you will understand that we are talking about the creation of two bridgehead for future offensive operations of the Russian army in the South (Crimea) and the West (the Kaliningrad region). Add to this the concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, joint military exercises with Belarus, calls up reservists for summer exercises, the amendment of the law on the timing and frequency of these calls up reservists, the original purpose Rogozin curator of the military-industrial complex of Russia and the constantly increasing adopted budgets, boorish provocative rhetoric close to the Kremlin and Putin jester Zhirinovsky and you will see that everything points to prepare Russia for world war II. "Return" the Kremlin's authorization in respect of Europe and the United States also point to prepare Russia for war and isolation. Russia knows that after the beginning of full-scale hostilities, it will be isolated, and this isolation and break off from the civilized world it is actively and openly prepared. Gas stop to put in the loan; in advance to allow the entry of foreign products to Russia has gradually rebuilt and began to feed itself, to the country overnight began commodity hunger. Some close to the Kremlin patterns, such as "LUKOIL", start selling foreign assets. About close to the Kremlin "private citizens" I'm not saying they have to do with this war are being prepared. Timchenko, for example, sold its assets on the day before the first introduction of sanctions. All this, I repeat, on the background of the fact that Russian strategic bombers began to violate the airspace of NATO and chasing NATO aircraft. This with the Brezhnev era was not. It is the preparation for war is not only Ukraine, but also from around the world. Ukraine was the first front in this war.

But it is not reasonable to start a big war?

Of course, it is unwise. But no ruler and military leader who starts the war, did not believe that starts a big war, but certainly not believed that starts world war. If it was known in advance the result of wars, no one would have begun. Take for example the First world war. It was a misunderstanding. Europe cut down the branch on which sat very comfortably. From the political map of Europe vanished Empire: Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian; winners: France and Britain - have lost more people than world war II and from this "victory" to recover already failed. And all this because of the murder of one of the heir to the throne terrorist in Serbia. Revenged for one heir, and dare all the monarchies of continental Europe. Wisely was it? Absolutely unreasonable.

It has been 100 years. By March 2014 we again lived comfortable, cozy, peaceful, and if you keep in mind Europe. Worked as a market economy, the border became more open. Russia from a poor Soviet power by 2014 due to the high prices of gas and oil, due to the fact that Russian companies entered the world of exchange and traded their shares at the expense of unlimited credit lines to become part of the global economy of the Russian large and medium business, became a prosperous rich country, and the Russians - wealthy citizens. To live and to live. But the people, who seized power in Russia (they are all from the KGB), quite different tasks, rather than the welfare of the Russian people. Now Putin is the way through which Hitler and Germany were in the years 1938-1945. But, as Austria-Hungary in 1914, and Germany in 1938-39, Putin and his associates do not realize that starting a major war. On the days of the "Third world" became a voice for us on the orders of Putin, Zhirinovsky, but only to frighten us her perspective, and not because he feels the Third world. He hopes to surrender.
 - What you need to do in order to avoid war?

- To begin with, what was to be done in the period March-July 2014 Ukrainian side and what she did. From the first day it was necessary to declare that Russia started against Ukraine war. Only now, under the inexorable pressure of facts and circumstances from time to time, individual members of the Ukrainian government and the public mention that actually occur may indicate the beginning of the war against Ukraine. And the war for five months goes. And the government about people haven't said. The people have to guess and conjecture. The military side of the question - that Crimea had to fight - we even discussing now will not. Of course, it was necessary for the Crimea to fight, because saved Crimean soul East of Ukraine now pays ten times as much.

The army is not and quickly not new, it's understandable. There is no money, and quickly they can find. This is understandable too. Accordingly, weapons cannot be bought - it is clear and it is. But Russian propaganda TV channels broadcasting on the whole Ukraine, disable, because it was possible? It doesn't need no money, no army. You just need to have some idea about what is happening and some (sorry) brains. Why it is only now, five months later, when the East already in the war? Why on the General background of talk about the lack of money were paid to Russia 786 million for previously delivered gas when Yatseniuk has said repeatedly that if the occupation of the Crimea Russia was kidnapped Ukrainian gas for a large sum? Who gave the order to pay this money to Russia? Is it stupidity or treason? Why not start an investigation of this crime? If you tell me that Russia has not paid a "rollback" 786 million, I believe. I remember what the campaign was promoted by the Russian TV for the money. The Putin - Medvedev - Miller with screen off, requiring 786 million - so important it was for them to get the money to continue the war with Ukraine. And Ukraine instead put that money on their defense gave them to Russia to conduct war against yourself.

So many things to do in March-July, while not wasting money, but on the contrary, seconomy.

Military, diplomatic and political opportunities of Ukraine, unfortunately, limited. But until then, while Ukraine itself is not aware of and will not say openly that against her started the war, NATO for help will not come. Why NATO must come to the aid, if Ukrainians are fighting not against the Russian army, and with local separatists? What does NATO, Europe and the USA? Well, sort it out yourself, if it's your local militia.

You know perfectly well that this is not a "militia", not "separatists" and that they are not local. Then I must say that it was clear both in Ukraine and abroad.

That makes the Ukrainian government, sequence no. If Russia is the aggressor, why is the discussion of "humanitarian aid"? Skip it or not? To get it or not? To customs clearance or not? Where did you see that the country against which initiated the aggression received from the aggressor humanitarian aid? The answer is clear: do not get, not to miss, not to customs clearance; to equate to the penetration of the enemy on their territory and to destroy. How can there be questions and doubts? The poles ever received from Hitler humanitarian aid? Even NATO stated that it was "a humanitarian convoy from 280 cars Russian invasion of Ukraine. And the Ukrainians discuss what trucks - baby food or something else and why they are half empty. What is the difference, what they are and why they are empty? Free cheese is only in a mousetrap. The convoy of 280 Trucks this is your mousetrap with free cheese. Tell me about it openly, declare that will destroy the convoy in case of penetration in Ukraine - and the end of the discussion about "humanitarian aid". Russia wants to help the population of Eastern Ukraine? Let the will of the Ukrainian troops and stop the fire. Then you will not need humanitarian assistance.

Now Moscow is ready by hook or by crook to squeeze themselves in Ukraine. It is very important that Ukrainians realized two things. First, no chance to fight there. Second: in the Ukraine alone will not stand. You need to work to gain the widest possible support from Europe and America. This is the main military and political objective of the government. Unfortunately, Europe and America are arranged so that, until blood is shed, no one responds. Western structures do not work as "ambulance". On the phone this help might not be called. But to secure military support - the government's main task, therefore, Ukraine should declare that will resist any level of Russian aggression. Help only those who resist. It is a vicious circle, and I understand this: while Ukraine will not begin to resist, she begins to help; but she could not resist, if she does not help.

At this stage Ukraine resists, saying that there is no war. I propose to resist, declaring openly that against Ukraine started the war. Then you get help, because from all points of view: from the military, political, diplomatic, strategic, geopolitical and from the point of view of common sense, NATO is more profitable to meet the Russian aggressor on the territory of the warring Ukraine, and not enslaved.

- What is the significance of the war in the Donbass in this great conflict?

Is only one of the plots. For Ukraine it is, of course, is of great importance. If the occupation of the Crimea was held as blitzkrieg, the Donbass it didn't come. Residents of Eastern Ukraine now it is clear that the Russian attempt to re-subordinate Ukraine bears in their homes, destruction, war and death, not prosperity and wealth. If after the Crimean occupation could be the illusion that the Russian annexation of Ukraine will take place peacefully, without victims, on the Crimean script, but now, five months later, it is clear to everyone that this is not so. Residents of Eastern Ukraine, I am sure, are not so complacent in relation to Russia in March 2014, when the monuments of Lenin under the red Soviet flags were organized rallies demanding referendums. The Russian invasion "polite green men" brought to Ukraine total destruction, the deaths of civilians and military, thousands of refugee problem. And this is only the beginning. In Crimea these problems, too, would come only later. It is clear that for Ukrainians nothing good project "new Russia" is not responsible. But Putin will continue to push further. Crimean script was option No. 1, now implemented option number 2, and there are more options № 3, № 4, № 5... of Course, in the Russian General staff all of these options have different names. Gradually these plans announced by Putin. From his last Crimean speech, we learned that Ukraine is a civil war that Ukraine is mired in blood that Russia can not intervene in what is happening in Ukraine. We have not heard anything that would indicate our intention Putin to stop the aggression and interference in the Affairs of Ukraine; have not heard about the territorial integrity of Ukraine; not heard that Ukraine has the right to decide their fate. I emphasize that we have heard just the opposite: Russia will intervene in the Ukrainian case, because in Ukraine the bloodshed, civil war, disaster, and that our responsibility in this situation to intervene. Remember Molotov before the invasion of Poland was declared in 1939 about the collapse of this "ugly offspring of the Versailles Treaty and of the need in this regard to protect the Ukrainian and Belarusian brothers? And so Putin in his Crimean speech, almost word for word repeats the speech Molotov. It is not surprising that the live broadcast of Putin's speech at the last minute cancelled. He is there so much said just that on a couple of Zhirinovsky...

Ukraine should understand that the war with Russia has already begun. If the world time will intervene and to full-scale war does not go well. But it is necessary to proceed from the worst scenario, hoping for the best; and not of the best, because then the absolute worst does happen. Ukraine is fighting not against the individual separatists. To think so is to place before the country, the people, the army incorrect tasks. Russia is at war with Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine is forced to fight against Russia.
But who can be an ally of Moscow in the war?

- Nobody. Now it is the weakest link in Putin's policy. If the allies of Hitler, Italy and Japan, and sympathy for Hitler and the Nazi movement was strong in many other European countries, on the side of Putin this support. Stalin's Soviet Union, of course, won in the Second world war, when, together with England and the United States fought against Germany and Italy. But it's not the same thing all alone by one of Russia to fight against the United States, England, Germany, Italy and the rest of Europe. By the way, Putin's Russia is not the Stalinist Soviet Union. This is a much weaker state.

The Kremlin, of course, waving the Chinese flag as a lifeline. On the Chinese map can be lengthy talk, you briefly. I'll try to be brief. With reference to our conversation about the Russian-Ukrainian war or about the Third world, forget about China. Only on our European ignorance of the colossus on feet of clay seems to be a single monolithic power. In the form in which it exists today, China was formed in 1928. So this ancient civilization, but the state is very young, with their serious problems. And because when existing in China, a Communist dictatorship government-controlled Chinese media do not tell us about all the problems of this country, they are not becoming fewer. We just don't know about them. So China is the last country that is interested in breach of world order, global stability and the war in Europe, and especially in the world because the Chinese economy is particularly interested in the stability and stable Western investment banks in the Chinese economy. The stability of this any big war will be broken. Therefore, to get involved in international conflict on the side of Russia, China, of course, will not.

However, I am far from thinking (which many advocates)that China will use the Russian involvement in the war in Europe to strengthen its position in Russia or even for territorial expansion at the expense of Russia. China peacefully waited a hundred years, until the end of the lease of Hong Kong by Britain. China still does not take the war effort for the annexation of Taiwan, although Taiwan is certainly "authentic Chinese earth". This ancient civilization think in terms of centuries, not "terms". Crimean jump Putin for the Chinese - Scam stupid European tribal leader, who is not able to think long-term, state-wise, on the generation ahead. And if we talk about Russian-Chinese trade, then Yes, of course, Russia will sell gas and oil to Asia instead of Europe. But the prices for these raw materials are charged will be quite different. Zero price gives an infinite demand. For zero price anyone will take the Russian oil and gas. But according to high European prices to sell it nobody will. So China as a buyer of Russia Europe will not replace.

- You said that to capture Ukraine is very important of Belarus, which opens the Russian army the way in Volhynia and Galicia, bypassing the Dnieper. Now we see on Lukashenka's political maneuvers between Pro-Ukrainian and Pro-Putin stance. What are his chances to fight back from Putin?

In the eyes of Europe and the United States Lukashenko is a dictator, so sympathy for him will not be. This does not mean that the world recognizes the annexation of Belarus by Russia. Does not recognize. But nothing will change. No offense Belarusians be said, but Belarus as a military unit is the missing link, an empty place. What will happen to this country in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian war, at the discretion of the Russian General staff. If you look at the map, Belarus is very important strategically to attack Ukraine. A full-scale war with Ukraine is impossible without breaking Belarusian sovereignty. The Russian army, of course, will be in Ukraine, including through Belarus. In consultation with the President or contrary to his will, it doesn't matter.

Lukashenko makes contradictory statements. To understand it. Him with no place to wait, and what Putin he knows better than us. To believe Putin is not, he will deceive. To agree with him Lukashenko nothing will, except that of full surrender. Therefore Lukashenko nervously waiting to see what will happen. And Russia in the case of a full-scale attack will come to Ukraine along the Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian border: from the Crimea, through Belarus to the East and South-East. Will there be pre-agreed between Putin and Lukashenko of Belarus ' entry into the Russian Federation, on the pass of Russian troops through the Belarusian territory or even about the participation of Belarusian units in joint military operations against Ukraine - the question of the formal technical. To protect Ukraine from the Russian aggression Lukashenko, it seems to me, will not.

- How long the Russian society will be able to live in such a pre-condition and in hard propaganda, which inflates the rating authority?

- Indefinitely. The Russian press and TV still work in the specified mode, just a little diminished enthusiasm. Any kind words about Ukraine, Ukrainians, USA and Europe you on television will not hear. The majority of the population of Russia, unfortunately, doesn't use the Internet, get their news only from the Russian media, and you know that show and write the Russian media about Ukraine. If Hitler and Goebbels were such propaganda tools to conquer the world it would be much easier.

The Russian propaganda machine was built Putin years, since 2000. In Russia everything is just gasped and groaned: " Oh, why is Putin need to subjugate the independent Russian media. That's it for the whole machine meekly obeyed the orders from above said watering Chechens will kill them Chechens. Said watering Georgians water Georgians. Said Ukrainians will kill them Ukrainians. Such a system will exist as long as you survive the Putin regime.

The rating authority is a separate issue. Rating seriously makes sense to discuss in a free country. And in a truly free country is very high ratings from the government does not happen. If the rating of the government support is too high, believe me, you are dealing with a dictatorship. All dictators always have a high level of support until their sweeps revolution. I would think that the current Russian surveys rather not say about the level of popularity of Putin, and about the level of remaining in Russia freedom. I'll explain what I mean. After the occupation of the Crimea in Russia conducted the survey by region "for Putin. Least Putin supported in Moscow, but seems to sixty percent. Most in Chechnya - 97%. Conclusion: the level of freedom of speech in Moscow, 40%, and in Chechnya 3%. In the rest of Russia - between three and forty percent.

To support Putin's popularity ratings have no relationship, the more that the population of Russia influence on government policy has not. Elections in Russia long ago became a fiction; the Parliament in all supported by the government and became the formal instrument of power, just like the Supreme Soviet of the USSR at the time. The actual surveys are conducted only on orders from above - this is another propaganda tool in the hands of the Kremlin, and only.

Russia is not one of those countries where the people are satisfied with revolution every ten years. Citizens of the Russian Federation are not inclined to throw their government. Many (often they are intelligent people, educated and active) refer to Russia as a platform for making money. From earning money man no task to reform Russia, the more so on this way too much risk. The main that punishment power business can take, and businessman to jail for economic crimes, as Khodorkovsky. It is easier to continue to make money while giving, "in which case leave. So many people think, although not many admit. Of course, there is the percentage of people who support Putin sincerely. But it's either the Nazis or nationalists, or people who have passed through a series of past wars are sick of war. In Germany the percentage of support for Hitler was quite high. The Germans, it did not help much after 1939. The specter of war in Russia today, very few people care about, and few people are scary. Well, there was the war in Chechnya in Russia is in General no one touched. Crimea was conquered too without any negative consequences. The Russians continue to live their lives. In the minds of people in Russia will not start no progress up until the war will not begin the actual deterioration of life. So far entered against Russia sanctions are slow and weak, and they will gradually start to work. I got more than all Europe will help Putin himself, because he needs to impose sanctions against its own people. He must seize the initiative, to secure itself against global international isolation. So now he will enter the gradual retaliatory sanctions, pretending to punish European and American businesses. Another indication of preparation for the great war - the purchase by Russia of gold, increased gold reserve. This is a standard operation of the Central Bank of the country before the outbreak of hostilities.
Is there a threat to the division of Europe in the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict?

- Any dictator stays on the "layout" - it is necessary to pit all, even within his team. This is done on a personal, national and continental level. Putin hoped to dissolve the United States and Europe, and then to find fault line and even in Europe itself. This is an important task, but, in my opinion, it is impossible. Not even because Europe United in the EU and will adhere to the General policy, but because of this, in fact, has not happened. This could only happen in the beginning of the conflict. There are countries that will suffer less of a break with Russia; some will suffer more. But to think that this will stop the sanctions, wrong. Germany depends on Russian gas supplies to Russia machines. And, of course, the Germans are not interested in the suspension of trade. But Germany has suffered most as a result of two world wars, which she initiated and lost. Germany knows what the dictator in European power and what it can bring. Yes, the German business scared sanctions against Russia. All businesses are now scared. But what's happening from March 2014 - not about money. Everything Putin does - not about money. It's about glory, even as Putin understands it; about the Empire, as he sees it; about the history and geopolitics, as he feels. This is another level of the world's problems. The period of earning money ended for all. There comes a period expenses accumulated resources. Quiet operation of market mechanisms, crafted for years already broken.

Who will win in this war?

- We know the outcome of the two previous world wars for Europe: the total ruin and destruction. This concerns both losers and winners. Even Britain has suffered, not only in terms of loss of life. After the First world war broke continental Empire. After the Second - to the East and the West were divided Germany and Europe. It is difficult to talk about the winners in such a war. The U.S. emerged from the war as a world power, and since then, against her will, was involved in all the world's problems. Can this be considered a win is a complicated question. Kindle today Putin war Europe. In Europe away from it all will suffer, especially Russia.

Source: https://informnapalm.org/