Russian historian and publicist, summed up the political results of the first week of October.
Russian political analyst and publicist, a leading researcher in the Institute of system analysis of Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Piontkovsky in an interview with Russian political Monitor summed up the first week of October, and commented on the situation around Russia's operation to rescue the Assad regime in Syria.
– Shortly before the Paris meeting, you wrote that Putin hopes to deceive “stupid Obama”, as he had deceived him two years ago with chemical disarmament, “sold” him this protection of Assad, as a contribution to the great challenge of fighting a coalition with ISIS. And for this service to request a price – softening the US position on Ukraine. Something happened with this exchange?
– First, I assumed that if this exchange goes through, this will not happen in Paris, and at the new York meeting between Obama and Putin on September 28. It is obvious that the exchange did not take place. Obama didn't go, and it was already clear before the meeting, which took place after their presentations at the General Assembly, which was the first made by Obama. His language in relation to the Ukrainian crisis were quite hard and uncompromising: “Russian aggression, the annexation of Crimea, the sanctions will not be charged”.
I believe that it is this rejection of the deal and pushed by Putin's very aggressive confrontational version of his statement, where were the calls for cooperation, but sounded a continuous stream of accusations against the United States. Further disastrous steps followed immediately after his return.
Despite the feeble attempts of denials from the Kremlin, around the world do not doubt that Russian aircraft bombed ISIL is not, and mainly the so-called ” Free Syrian army” that is, those patterns that are allies of the United States. Working for the domestic audience, not consider it necessary to refute such, for example, Pro-Kremlin commentators as an anchor or Shevchenko.
Putin gave up trying to install with the West “a new peaceful coexistence” , which, judging by publications, the leaks, the message heard for more than half a year, apparently hoped a considerable part of the Russian establishment . Finding that the easing in Ukraine will not, it seems to me, with great relief to himself abandoned this line of conduct, and chose the most confrontational path.
– How this situation will affect the situation in Ukraine, on the progress of the Minsk agreements?
First, you need to share what happened in new York that has occurred in direct connection with the Minsk process. What happened in new York, Ukraine will have no effect. There will be no easing of sanctions, on the other hand neither (at least in the near future) tightening them. That is, these two plot – Ukraine and Syria – they will remain separated.
Have you noticed that the last two or three months, terms such as “Russian world” or “new Russia” is simply not used. The project “new Russia” is closed, all that the Kremlin is now trying to get as a sort of consolation prize for Ukraine is to push called “Lugandan” in the political body of Ukraine. Putin didn't need territorial acquisition – Crimea to digest. He needs control over political processes in Ukraine, blocking its European vector. For this it is necessary to introduce a secessionist entity back to how the cancer is decomposed Ukraine, blocked the reform, thereby giving him leverage on the domestic political situation in the country.
The Minsk agreement is an internally contradictory document, which will not be realized. In particular, Russia will never fulfill two positions, which is registered in Minsk: the withdrawal of foreign troops (as the Kremlin could withdraw them if he claims that they are not there) and transfer to the Kiev control over the border.
In turn, Ukraine will not do what it is seeking from Putin and his interpretation of the Minsk agreements:
a) all these figures – Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky, and other “Motorela” and the company will become part of the political field of Ukraine, met in the Parliament;
b) to Kiev would contain economically these areas.
Rada adopted a law on temporarily occupied territories and, accordingly, looks at this Kiev part of Ukraine as to the responsibility zone of the Russian occupying forces.
The only positive moment of the Minsk agreement can be considered breeding troops and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the confrontation line. At least, the sides will stop killing each other. As for the rest, we deal with the conflict frozen for quite a long time.
– That is the meeting in Paris also brought no results
– In General, Yes, except for the little exchange. Putin has agreed to cancel the elections that were scheduled in the Lao PDR at the end of October, hoping that in response, Merkel and Hollande will have some pressure on Poroshenko, so that he introduced into the Constitution some provisions coming towards Putin's interpretations of the Minsk agreements. He promised that he would talk to Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky (this, of course, only a diplomatic figure of speech: what to say — what the Kremlin will say that they will.)
But this is all just verbal fights over pieces of paper, but the essence can be formulated as follows:
The military phase of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine has ended; no one else to shoot at each other will not be; about Russian encroachments type of capture of Mariupol and corridor to Crimea speech more to go, the region will eventually become another isolated region of Transnistria. While it is obvious to everyone that his Ukrainian adventure of Putin suffered a severe political and moral defeat.
– There is an opinion that Putin got into Syria in order to disguise this defeat...
– Of course. And it's very dangerous for him in the internal political aspect. Akela can't miss. Putin is not afraid of any mass uprisings – and they are not expected, except in this case he has the riot police, interior troops and army. For it is much more dangerous mood of his entourage.
For any dictator to be the most dangerous situation is a foreign policy defeat because inevitable doubts closest associates in the capacity of dictator.
While in Ukraine foreign policy Russia's defeat is obvious. Akela has missed and all the members of Putin's “Politburo”, which concurrently are very wealthy business people, start to think. Dealt a huge blow to the economy, their personal interests, to their assets in the West. And for what? For the sake of creating some lugandoniya there?
So Putin has no respite to sharply raise interest rates – and now Syria, which the media field is worked out in patterns of “Crimea is ours”’. Remember the enthusiasm of 18 March 2014 ? And now if you look at the messages of Russian news agencies and the court experts — everything is going just fine: “Yankees” at a loss to know what to do, hundreds of Islamists fled to Europe. In addition, we fearlessly bomb allies of the West; our General showed up at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and demanded to remove American aircraft out of the Syrian sky. All this appeals to the pride, arouses Patriotic fervor. But again, this euphoria will pass soon, and serious problems are identified. Will start breaking and then what? To inject another dose of the horse drug Imperial?
We got into terrible adventure in a medieval religious war between Shiites and Sunnis. A considerable part of the Russian establishment would like to get in a big American coalition, becoming an important participant, and in return receive a release of pressure on Russia. Did not work. Putin created his own coalition of the Iranian Islamic revolutionary guard corps, Iraqi Shiite militia “Mahdi Army”, the Hezbollah, who themselves are in their ideology and practice is no less notorious terrorist organizations than ISIL. And all of them are of the Shiite branch of Islam.
And now together we will fight against the Sunnis (which in the world 1 500 000 000 or 85% of all Muslims). What we need is one and a half billion people do to their enemies?
In order to save Assad's ass and to show gruel “Yankees”?! Putin rushed to Syria to extinguish the growing discontent among the environment of failure in Ukraine, but after two or three months it will become clear that Syria is also a failure, only even more deafening, and this discontent will only increase.
By the way the vast majority of Muslims in Russia are Sunni, we also want to do with their enemies? You are, incidentally, drew attention to the fact that the silent leaders of the Muslim Ummah in Russia?
You heard someone from the Muslim leaders of Russia (except Kadyrov, but he is a Muslim), once spoke on the topic of Russian air strikes in Syria? Where are all these Muftis, who recently stood on the podium with Putin at the opening of the mosque in Moscow. None of them never said a word. And this, incidentally, is a serious indicator. I was recently at one meeting – there were a lot of very competent professionals, people from government agencies. I asked how it was possible at all to get involved in this conflict? I was told that anybody with anybody did not consult. Any experts with any of the Arabists, with any experts on the middle East no consultation was conducted. The decision was taken by the triumvirate of Putin, Ivanov, and Patrushev. Remember, as in the notorious film about the Crimea, Putin boasted : “I did it”, “I decided”, “I cited the readiness of the strategic nuclear forces”. Here and also here.
There is even a conspiracy theory properties, which I'd rather not share, because I think that here we are talking about the indecision of the current American administration, but there is an opinion that Putin specially involved in the Syrian adventure, which is not so much a gamble, much already a trap. That is why the U.S. we have no political resistance, not to mention military. And really is something to think about, as we hit their allies, and they are anything but concern and hot desire for constructive dialogue with Russia on Syria do not Express.
– By the way what can you say about the rumours spread by a number of Russian media that China is allegedly ready to support the Russian operation in Syria?
– I personally doubt it. While it was true that there were reports that Chinese aircraft carrier is sent to the conflict zone. This information was quickly refuted by experts in the naval forces. I think that we are dealing with trying some informational provocation, perhaps aimed at our domestic consumers. At the time, was the Albanian dictator Hoxha, who was fond of saying that “we are with the Soviet Union two hundred one million”, so it's something from the same Opera.
All I know about China, tells me that in any case he will not climb. China has a very complex, diverse economic and political relations with the United States. Yes they are in a number of areas are rivals, but they are like Siamese twins entwined economically. And why would the Chinese oppose to the entire Sunni world? In such an adventure, with absolutely deprecatively the final they will not come back ever.
In that case, what could be the finale of this adventure for Russia, for Putin himself? What will happen when Syrian adventure will fail – then it's already rates fail to improve?
– Next is nuclear war or the dictator's resignation, voluntary or not. Funded by Saudi Arabia Syrian group “Jaish al-Islam” (Army of Islam ed.) have already declared war on Russia for supporting Assad. While these could somehow laugh it off. But Saudi Arabia is very harsh statements about Russian stocks, but if you remember that the USSR collapsed after Saudi Arabia decided to bring down oil prices in the mid 80's. by the Way, is not worth very much discounted by the fact that the Sunnis (Pakistan ) have nuclear Arsenal. Not very big. But for Moscow and one warhead would be enough. We may now say that it is better and Pakistan to meet in far away areas.
– Role of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to support the Mujahideen in Afghanistan and later in Chechnya are also well known. And why turn them against themselves, when in Russia 20% of the population (including multi-million “army” of migrants from Central Asian countries) is Sunni Muslims?
– Why does he save the butcher Assad, the conscience of which 200 thousand Sunni hates him for that all the Sunni population of Syria, and all Sunnis in the world. To save his regime will fail. The maximum that can Moscow be able to leave behind him some small Alawite enclave protected by Russian troops, and in return to attract the hatred of Muslims all over the world.
I am afraid that is not worth to look for some rational reason. Here for Putin, there's something very personal. Putin, like a number of his close associates, believe that there is a global conspiracy, which aims to remove outstanding “Champions of a multipolar world”. The first one was Gaddafi, next Assad, and then will be the turn of Putin himself. They say that Putin made a tremendous impression video of the last fifteen minutes of Gaddafi's life, and he vowed not to allow that to happen with Assad. Because, in his opinion, be he himself. So I'm afraid that Russia will have to fight for Assad. And in this situation, we need not be afraid of American sanctions and other measures from the United States, and reciprocal steps on the part of representatives of more than a billion Sunni Ummah. That shit we can be stronger than a dozen of the Americas.
So I think that Syria is much more dangerous than Afghanistan. Afghanistan, in the end, it was a blind corner, where we went, trouble, and, after all, was able to go... And here we climbed into the thick, in the neuralgic centre of the religious war between Shiites and Sunnis.
I'm afraid all this will end very badly.
МБФ "СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ" / ICF "GLORY TO UKRAINE" / FIB "GLOIRE À L'UKRAINE"
