Dans le dernier mois et demi, on note l'escalade de la rhétorique autour du thème de la acculé les rats qui sera prêt à utiliser des armes nucléaires.

Part 1

Most often, this is a General reasoning on which it is possible not to pay attention. More substantive rhetoric was performed by Putin himself, when he talked lengthy about the capture of the Crimea. There he not only spoke about such a possibility, but sounded conditions and, in fact, those against whom the weapons he intended to use. We remember that speech and I can assume that the relevant structures of the Russian armed forces are a few envelopes with different encoding. It is possible that one of them says something like: "Lateral 326" and there painted a sequence of actions that should lead to the rockets who, like personally, Putin said, had to cover the clusters of armed forces on its own territory.

This option we leave out of the equation, just keep in mind that it probably is, and pay attention to the fact that such code envelopes or files should be several. Each of them indicated, to whom, in what sequence and on what targets to strike. We write all of this to the fact that very rarely the rhetoric on the application of the RF Yao comes to at least approximate reality. General discussions go in the press and in the corridors of various high institutions of the Russian Federation. We have our own sources in the environment and sometimes provide aggregate information about the rumors that circulate there, because there is no smoke without fire. These sources do not give a picture of where it can be directed the head of Putin's schizophrenia. Documented the opinions of idiots like Wolfowitz, we intentionally do not take into account. And here we found an article in which the output from the script at number 7 suggests one option of using nuclear weapons against Saudi Arabia. We are talking about a nuclear strike on the largest Saudi Arabian oil terminal of RAS Tanura, through which almost 3/4 of Saudi oil exports.

This example can be considered as a tester for the whole situation. The use of force, especially nuclear weapons, must have a very strong motivation. Initially considered the possibility of retaliatory nuclear strike. Then the frames were blurred by the assumption of pre-emptive nuclear strike, if there is a real threat of a nuclear attack. Citizen Putin went further and removed from doctrine it is the threat of a nuclear attack, replacing the threat of the interests. Not as funny, but it just stoned wahluke zhirika about the necessity of a nuclear destruction of the Bosphorus — fit into the modern doctrine of using nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation from the Russian Federation. Harm the interest of the village and get a tractor!

As you can see from the article, the RF has an idea about the Saudis as a nest of Islamic terrorists. But then the authors went too far. Who does not like Moscow to know where the true center of terrorism. With this question there illusions. But active game on the price of oil is another matter. Here it is necessary to take into account the fact that the Saudis one-stroke defeat on four points of the Russian Federation:

In fact reduction in income from lower prices;
Decrease, oil and gas prices;
The beginning of The extrusion of the Russian Federation with the European oil market;
China.
On the last point let us dwell a bit more. Oil exports to China is for infrastructure, created with the financial participation of China. In short in Chinese loans. Sculpted all Rosneft. As such companies are able to sculpt large infrastructure projects is well known. Recall that the Nord stream for Gazprom, the Germans were ready to build for a third of the price. There is a large proportion of the probability that Rosneft is building at least "effectively". In the end, 2/3 of the credit went into the pockets of all contacts, which last week in the United States has officially recognized the corruption. But the focus is not in it, and how Russia take the rap for this loan. And is very simple, in China the oil at a substantial discount to world prices. This data is not publicized, but right now oil went to China at the price of about $23-25 per barrel. It is not surprising that Russia has increased oil export to China, but oil is sold at the price below cost, i.e., at a loss! And it was all clear, such a provision would act Yes 2030!

That is, the collapse in oil prices, the Saudis did the RF resource colony for China! The same is expected to be done in the project "Power of Siberia", at the stage of construction to plunder two-thirds of the money, and then 20 years to supply gas to China at a loss. If oil prices stayed in the range of $50-80, this wouldn't have happened. Now the situation is such that the ideologues of these projects to Putin, Sechin and Miller at the time of the shoot, because losses will be covered from the budget and cut money went into personal pockets.

That is, with the motivation of hatred for Saudita — all right. It is the States and the Gulf countries, primarily Saudi Arabia — has confused all the cards. In the second part we will talk about what can or cannot be solved with a nuclear strike on the Saudi oil terminals.

Part 2

Now back to the point where we started. Any use of force, and especially the Yao must have motivation. That is, as a result of its application, should be asked why it is done. If you look at the issue linearly, we can assume that we are talking about disabling one of the largest suppliers of oil. But this may not be the goal. Goal is the rise of oil prices and, in the end is getting such a welcome windfall profits that flowed in the last 10 years. However, it is just problems of a catastrophic nature. A complete embargo on everything that sells in Russia is the least that will happen the next day. It is likely that even China will support the embargo. That is, assuming the lack of military response against Russia, the next day after this attack, Russia de-facto will turn into North Korea, and worse. The border closes so briefly that such examples history has never known.

In a world undergoing tremendous political change, which will lead to reformatting the UN, with the imminent withdrawal of the Russian Federation from all international organizations. No "veto" and "hot lines", meetings and consultations will be no more. Around the perimeter of the Russian Federation will host military bases for a definitive and ruthless elimination of this source of rabies. All funds of the Russian oligarchs and Putin will either be frozen or confiscated, and their families, mistresses, servants and even animals — deported over the fence. Poland, Ukraine, Turkey and Georgia will receive any weapon and in any quantity. In short, to profit from such focus will not succeed. In addition, there are many studies showing that in the modern world it is almost impossible to get a local nuclear conflict. With almost 100% probability he will grow into a global.

Here we turn to the military aspect of such an event.. In the area is already tightened and pulled together on a fairly powerful force of the coalition. Experts know that if NATO creates a military base, they are guaranteed to be covered by systems of air defense/missile defense. Moreover, there began to arrive assault units of the army.

Don't forget that the Bay area is the zone of responsibility of the Fifth fleet of the U.S. Navy, with the main base in Manama, Bahrain. Ibid., almost finished the construction of the naval base and the UK. Now there is a good portion of the Royal Navy. Practice two wars in the Gulf shows that the slightest aggravation of the situation in the region, causes an instant boost of group of naval forces sixth fleet from the Mediterranean and the seventh fleet from the Eastern Indian and Pacific oceans, on a rotating basis. In addition, right now in this area there is a summary grouping of the Navy of the allies, including French Navy aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" it is Obvious that not only these groups of terrestrial and Maritime forces will be covered as a minimum by means of the system "aegis", but the whole area will be full of air defenses/defense to the extent that the use of missile or that Yao would be very difficult. Do not forget that the Northern part of Arabia adjacent to Israel, where ABOUT are even better than in the US.

On this basis, we can conclude that the use of Yao of the Russian Federation against the Saudis technically difficult losing politically and economically suicidal. Of course, the old Man can concoct plans global Armageddon, but next to him right now are a few people who have their own directives for such a case. As a minimum, such information in advance of leaving for the ocean, how high is Putin will die of a heart attack. In any case, a massive nuclear strike had to be applied 25-30 years ago. Modern technical means can eliminate much of that will be able to fly. Every day reduces the number of combat-ready missiles. Common degradation includes nuclear Dubin, rather, to nuclear Dubin — in the first place. By and large, Russia does not have the option, and over time this statement will be more categorical.

In any case, the escalating rhetoric about a possible nuclear attack indicates that other arguments for rhetoric is gone, and there is understand.

Source: http://defence-line.org/

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